Opposition Conservatives Gain Ground in German State Elections
Germany’s opposition conservatives made significant gains in the states of Hesse and Bavaria in Sunday’s elections, reflecting growing discontent with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left government. Concerns about the economic slowdown and migration issues were key factors in the outcomes.
Discontent with Scholz’s Government
The results in Hesse and Bavaria, which together represent around a fifth of the German population, are expected to increase tensions within Scholz’s federal coalition. The coalition, comprised of the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats, has been plagued by infighting and accusations of weak leadership. This has raised doubts about its ability to effectively address the various crises facing the country.
Conservative Gains in Hesse and Bavaria
In Hesse, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) are projected to secure 35.5% of the vote for the state legislature, while the SPD is expected to receive 16%, according to an exit poll. This result is likely to allow the CDU to continue governing for another term. The outcome dealt a blow to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, the SPD lead candidate, whose campaign was criticized for her handling of irregular migration.
In Bavaria, the CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is projected to win 37% of the vote, marking its worst result since 1950. However, it is only a slight drop from the 2018 elections. The CSU is expected to maintain its coalition with the populist Free Voters, who are projected to receive 14% of the vote. The SPD, traditionally weak in Bavaria, trailed behind with 8.5%.
Junior Coalition Partners Struggle
The coalition’s junior partners, the Greens and FDP, fared worse in the state elections compared to 2018. The FDP is on track to drop out of Bavaria’s parliament. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made gains, securing 16% of the vote in Hesse and 15% in Bavaria. These results confirm the political ascendancy of a party that was established just a decade ago. The AfD’s rise in popularity could complicate the formation of stable majorities, as other parties refuse to cooperate with it.
Challenges for Scholz’s Government
The approval rating of Scholz’s government remains at its lowest level since taking office in December 2021. According to the ARD-Deutschland Trend survey, four out of five Germans are dissatisfied with its performance. However, political scientist Philipp Koeker suggests that low approval ratings and losing state elections are not uncommon in the middle of a federal legislative term.
As a response, the coalition parties are likely to focus on issues relevant to their respective core electorates while adopting a tougher stance on migration. This may lead to further divergence among the coalition partners.
The outcome of the state elections in Hesse and Bavaria has underscored the challenges faced by Chancellor Scholz’s government. It remains to be seen how the coalition will navigate these difficulties and address the pressing issues affecting Germany.
