Big Banks in UK Prepare for Potential Escalation of Western Sanctions on China
Banks Share Scenario Planning with Governments
Big banks in Britain are taking proactive measures to prepare for the possibility of future Western sanctions on China. In a bid to mitigate risks, these banks have shared their “scenario planning” with the British and U.S. governments, according to a senior banking official. The aim is to learn from previous sanctions frameworks, particularly those imposed on Russia, and assess the potential impact of similar measures on China. Neil Whiley, the director of sanctions at UK Finance, a lobby group representing around 300 firms including HSBC, Barclays, and JPMorgan, stated that the project examines asset ownership transparency, traceability of Chinese products, and commercial ties between the West and China across various industries.
Contingency Plans in Case of Geopolitical Tensions
Following the unexpected speed and breadth of prohibitions on Russia, banks are now drawing up contingency plans in case geopolitical tensions between the West and China escalate. While industry sources do not anticipate immediate changes to sanctions, they recognize the need for preparedness. The focus is on assessing the extent of commercial ties between the West and China, particularly in high-risk sectors like technology, and identifying measures that may backfire if applied to China. The tensions between the West and China, fueled by disagreements over Taiwan, export controls, allegations of Chinese spying, and Beijing’s security crackdown, have prompted UK Finance to convene regular meetings among major British and overseas banks to discuss these issues.
Sharing Insights and Assessing Risks
UK Finance has compiled a comprehensive document based on discussions and insights shared during these meetings. The document, which runs into tens of thousands of words, was completed in August and recently shared with Western government contacts. The project aims to assess risks associated with China by analyzing the transparency of asset ownership and control, the traceability of Chinese products, and the interconnectivity between Western and Chinese industries. While the document has not been made available for public review, it reflects the collective efforts of the finance industry to assess potential risks and prepare for any future escalation of tensions.
Financial Institutions Proactively Evaluating Exposure
The possibility of stronger Western sanctions on China in the future has prompted discussions within the boards of major financial institutions. Scenarios such as cyber-attacks and military intervention in Taiwan could potentially trigger further prohibitions on China. Financial institutions are evaluating their exposure to China and determining whether it is tolerable given the current geopolitical climate. The experience of dealing with Russian sanctions has prompted a deeper evaluation of risks associated with China. The industry is keen to avoid being caught off guard and is actively seeking guidance on sanctions compliance, risk assessment, and managing potential investigations or enforcement.
A Prudent Approach
While the industry acknowledges the need for preparedness, experts believe that any potential sanctions on China would likely be targeted at specific companies, products, and services. They anticipate a more nuanced and commercially driven approach, unlike the broad-based sanctions imposed on Russia. By taking a prudent approach and incorporating scenario planning, big banks in the UK aim to navigate the complexities of geopolitical tensions and protect their interests in the event of further escalation.
