Falling Stocks and Climbing Mortgage Rates: The Impact of Rising Treasury Yields
The Impact of Rising Treasury Yields
In recent times, the relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has caused Treasury yields to reach their highest level in more than 15 years. This surge in yields has had wide-ranging effects, roiling everything from stocks to the real estate market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5% late Thursday, a level not seen since 2007. Factors such as expectations of elevated interest rates from the Federal Reserve and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns have contributed to this movement.
The Effects on the Stock Market
Higher Treasury yields can dampen investors’ appetite for stocks and other risky assets. They tighten financial conditions by increasing the cost of credit for companies and individuals. This has led to a decline in stock prices, with the S&P 500 down about 7% from its yearly highs. The promise of guaranteed yields on U.S. government debt has drawn investors away from equities.
The Impact on the Dollar
The surge in Treasury yields has also had a significant impact on the value of the U.S. dollar. The dollar has advanced against its G10 peers by an average of about 6.4% since mid-July. This strengthens the dollar and tightens financial conditions, which can negatively affect U.S. exporters and multinationals. Additionally, it complicates the efforts of other central banks to control inflation by pushing down their currencies.
The Effect on the Housing Market
Mortgage rates, influenced by Treasury yields, have reached their highest level since 2000. This has caused a decline in homebuilder confidence and a decrease in mortgage applications. Despite a strong job market and robust consumer spending, the housing market has been the most affected by the Federal Reserve’s actions to cool demand and undercut inflation. Existing home sales have dropped to a 13-year low in September.
The Impact on Credit Markets
As Treasury yields surge, credit market spreads have widened. Investors now demand a higher yield on riskier assets such as corporate bonds. The rise in yields has also increased funding costs for prospective borrowers, as seen in the ICE BofA High Yield Index.
Volatility in Stocks and Bonds
Expectations regarding Fed policy and concerns about increased government deficit spending and debt issuance have led to increased volatility in both stocks and bonds. The MOVE index, measuring expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, is near its highest level in over four months. Equities have also experienced increased volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index reaching a five-month peak.
The surge in Treasury yields has had far-reaching effects on various sectors of the economy. From the stock market to the housing market, the impact has been significant. As investors navigate these uncertain times, it is crucial to closely monitor the evolving economic landscape.
