Rising Bond Yields and the Fed’s Changing Perspective
The U.S. Federal Reserve is reevaluating the factors behind the tightening financial conditions caused by rising bond yields. They believe these yields are not solely driven by market expectations of further Fed rate hikes but are influenced by various other factors. This new perspective allows the Fed to adjust their policy rate accordingly.
Chair Powell’s Acknowledgment
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged this potential shift during a speech at the Economic Club of New York. He indicated that the recent surge in yields might eliminate the need for more rate hikes. This change in view is attributed to the return of the “term premium” as a significant factor affecting bond yields. This premium, which has been suppressed for a decade, includes compensation for holding longer-term debt and incorporates risk preferences, economic outlooks, and global financial conditions.
The Impact of Fed Policies
In response to the global financial crisis and the subsequent pandemic, the Fed aimed to keep borrowing costs low. As a result, the term premium was nearly eradicated as the central bank prioritized preventing rate hikes that could hinder economic recovery. However, during the initial stages of the tightening campaign in 2022, the Fed faced challenges as long-term rates remained low due to concerns that the Fed would over-tighten and trigger a recession. This dynamic has shifted as investors now recognize the Fed’s commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target, even if it means accepting a slower economy.
The Rise of Term Premiums
Term premiums cannot be directly observed, but models exist to estimate them. According to a New York Fed model, the term premium for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has increased significantly since the third quarter. This rise in term premiums can have ripple effects on other assets, such as stocks, and independently tighten financial conditions. The Fed has previously highlighted this risk in its reports to Congress.
Implications for Fed Policy
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, an expert in fixed income markets, emphasized the impact of higher term premiums on long-term interest rates. If term premiums remain elevated, the need for further rate hikes may diminish. This gives the Fed more flexibility as it nears the end of its campaign to raise the policy rate.
In conclusion, the Fed’s changing perspective on rising bond yields reflects a recognition of the influence of term premiums. This new understanding allows the Fed to adjust its policy rate based on a broader range of factors, ultimately shaping the financial landscape.
