Argentina’s Monthly Inflation Expected to Moderate in September
Analysts Predict 11.5% Inflation Rate
According to a Reuters poll of 20 analysts, Argentina’s monthly inflation rate is expected to have reached 11.5% in September. While this figure remains in the double digits, it indicates a slight moderation from the country’s worst inflation rate in 32 years recorded in the previous month.
Double-Digit Inflation Continues
In August, the consumer price index (CPI) in Argentina rose by 12.4%, contributing to an annual inflation rate of over 124%. Eugenio Mari, chief economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, stated that September marks the second consecutive month with double-digit inflation.
Impact of Currency Devaluation
Analysts attribute the surge in retail prices in August to the government’s decision to devalue the local currency by nearly 18% to 350 pesos. This move, along with other economic measures implemented ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, caused a significant increase in the retail price index.
Inflation Expected to Persist
Analysts predict that the current inflationary trend will continue in the coming months, with inflation remaining at high levels. Paula Gandara, an analyst at Adcap Asset Management, stated that they estimate the monthly inflation rate will not drop below 10% until the end of the year.
Range of Projections
The surveyed analysts’ projections for September’s inflation rate varied from a minimum rise of 10.7% to a maximum of 13.8%. This range highlights the uncertainty surrounding inflation levels in the country.
Weekly Inflation Measures
The Secretariat of Economic Policy recently started publishing a weekly measure of inflation. The data for the week of September 25th showed a 1.3% increase in prices, a significant decrease from the peak of 4.8% registered in mid-August. The Economy Ministry expressed that although inflation remains high, it has slowed down considerably.
Doubts About Slowdown
Economist Martin Kalos expressed skepticism regarding a slowdown in September’s inflation figure. He believes it will be similar to that of August, suggesting that the newly introduced weekly memo by the Secretariat is an attempt to show a slowdown ahead of the elections.
Upcoming Data Releases
The official statistics institute INDEC is scheduled to release September’s inflation data on Thursday at 1900 GMT. Additionally, the central bank will publish its Market Expectations Survey (REM) shortly after, which may include a decision on the interest rate.
With the anticipation of these data releases, the market awaits further insights into the country’s inflationary situation and its impact on the economy.