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Oil prices may rise following Iran’s attack on Israel, pending response; further increases uncertain.

Oil Prices Expected to Rise Following Iran’s Attack on Israel

Analysts Predict Increase in Oil Prices

Oil prices are anticipated to rise on Monday after Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend, with analysts suggesting that further gains may hinge on how Israel and the West choose to retaliate.

First Direct Attack on Israeli Territory

Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, marking the first direct assault on Israeli territory. This incident has heightened concerns about a broader regional conflict.

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Impact on Oil Prices

The concern of a response from Iran following the strike on its embassy compound in Damascus supported oil prices last week, pushing global benchmark prices to $92.18 a barrel, the highest since October. While trading closed on Sunday, expectations are for stronger prices when trading resumes.

Factors Influencing Price Movements

Although there has been no immediate impact on production, the possibility of a disruption in supply from the region could sustain the rally in oil prices. The response from Israel and developments near Iran’s Strait of Hormuz will be crucial in determining the extent of price fluctuations.

Global Response and Economic Implications

U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to convene a meeting with leaders of the Group of Seven major economies underscores the need for a coordinated diplomatic response to the Iranian attack. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could further escalate tensions and impact global oil supply chains.

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Potential Political Ramifications

The rise in oil prices could have political implications, especially in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Any disruption in Iranian oil exports could lead to a spike in oil prices and affect the cost of gasoline in the U.S., a sensitive issue for voters.

Security Concerns and Market Speculation

The threat of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s actions in the region continue to raise security concerns. Market speculation and the inclusion of a risk premium in crude prices highlight the uncertainty surrounding future price movements.

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