Nikki Haley Set to Win Nevada Republican Primary
Nikki Haley’s Hollow Victory
Nikki Haley, the last remaining rival to frontrunner Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, is set to win Nevada’s primary on Tuesday. However, it will be a hollow victory as Trump will secure all of the state’s delegates in a separate contest on Thursday.
Expected Democratic Primary Win
President Joe Biden is expected to easily win Tuesday’s Democratic primary after dominating his party’s first nominating contest in South Carolina on Saturday.
Meaningless Republican Ballot
For Republican voters in Nevada, Tuesday’s state-run Republican ballot only has former U.N. ambassador Haley as a major candidate. She is therefore all but guaranteed to win, but it’s largely meaningless.
Separate Republican Caucus
Only candidates participating in a separate Republican caucus on Thursday can compete for the state’s 26 delegates to the Republican National Convention in July when the party formally nominates its candidate.
Conflict Between State Republican Party and 2021 State Law
The rival caucus is being run by the Trump-friendly state party, and only Trump is on that ballot, almost certainly guaranteeing him victory on Thursday and all the state’s delegates.
Trump’s Call to Voters
In a visit to Nevada last week, Trump urged voters to ignore Tuesday’s primary and to only vote in Thursday’s caucus.
South Carolina Last Stand
Haley is vowing to stay in the Republican nominating race and on to a potential last stand in her home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24, but she has no clear path to the nomination. She trails Trump badly in South Carolina according to opinion polls.
Biden’s Campaign in Nevada
Biden campaigned in Nevada on Sunday and Monday. He will appear on the ballot along with self-help author Marianne Williamson and other lesser-known Democratic challengers. U.S. Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota missed the filing deadline and won’t appear on the ballot.
Nevada’s Importance as a Swing State
Despite what look like foregone conclusions in Nevada’s nominating contests, it will be a hotly contested battleground state because its population can swing to either party and play a decisive role in November’s presidential election.
Nevada’s Demographics and Political Leanings
About 30% of Nevada’s population is self-described as Latino or Hispanic on the U.S. Census, and Republicans are making some inroads with these voters nationwide. Nevada also has many potential swing voters: there are 768,000 registered as “non-partisan,” more than those registered as either Democrat or Republican, according to the latest state figures.
Close Presidential Race in Nevada
In 2020, Biden narrowly beat Trump in Nevada by 2.4 percentage points. Opinion polls show a likely rematch between Biden and Trump in the swing state will be close.
