JP Morgan and Nomura Raise China’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2023
Encouraging Signs for China’s Economic Growth
JP Morgan and Nomura have revised their forecast for China’s economic growth this year, following a stronger-than-expected performance in the third quarter compared to the previous year. The two financial institutions now project a higher GDP growth rate for China in 2023. JP Morgan forecasts a growth rate of 5.2%, surpassing Beijing’s official target of 5%, while Nomura predicts a growth rate of 5.1%, up from their previous forecast of 4.8%.
Positive Third Quarter Results
New data reveals that China’s GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, exceeding the Reuters poll expectation of a 4.4% increase. Although the growth rate was slightly slower than the second quarter’s 6.3% expansion, it still signifies a positive trend in China’s economic recovery.
Continued Economic Momentum
JP Morgan’s economists, led by Haibin Zhu, express optimism about China’s economic recovery, stating that the momentum is expected to persist in the coming months. They highlight the strength of policy tailwind sectors, the return of export volume to positive growth, and the encouraging recovery in retail sales.
Challenges in the Economy
Despite the positive outlook, Zhu warns of weak links in the economy, particularly in private investment and a potential housing market correction. He notes that weak nominal GDP growth poses a challenge to the recovery in private investment, impacting earnings and profit outlooks.
Projected Growth Rates for 2024 and 2025
JP Morgan anticipates a faster decline in China’s potential growth than initially expected, with projected growth rates of 4%-4.5% in 2024 and 3.5%-4% in 2025.
The revised forecasts from JP Morgan and Nomura indicate confidence in China’s economic recovery and highlight the country’s resilience amidst global uncertainties. As China continues to navigate challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities, the world will be closely watching its economic trajectory.
