The International Monetary Fund Maintains Global Growth Outlook for 2023

The IMF’s Global Growth Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has decided to keep its global growth outlook unchanged for this year. This decision comes as the U.S. economy demonstrates remarkable strength, which helps counterbalance weaker forecasts for China and the euro area.

Estimates for Selected Countries and Regions

Let’s take a closer look at the estimates for various countries and regions and how they have changed compared to previous IMF forecasts.

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2023 Estimates

• World: The global growth rate for 2023 remains at 3.0%.
• United States: The U.S. growth rate is projected to be 2.1%, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.8%.
• Euro Area: The growth rate for the Euro Area is estimated to be 0.7%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 0.9%.
• Germany: Germany’s growth rate is expected to be -0.5%, a decrease from the previous forecast of -0.3%.
• France: The growth rate for France is projected to be 1.0%, up from the previous forecast of 0.8%.
• Italy: Italy’s growth rate is estimated to be 0.7%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 1.1%.
• Spain: Spain’s growth rate is expected to be 2.5%, unchanged from the previous forecast.
• Japan: The growth rate for Japan is projected to be 2.0%, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.4%.
• United Kingdom: The UK’s growth rate is estimated to be 0.5%, up from the previous forecast of 0.4%.
• Canada: Canada’s growth rate is projected to be 1.3%, a decrease from the previous forecast of 1.7%.
• Emerging Markets: The growth rate for emerging markets is expected to be 4.0%, unchanged from the previous forecast.
• China: China’s growth rate is estimated to be 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 5.2%.
• India: The growth rate for India is projected to be 6.3%, an increase from the previous forecast of 6.1%.
• Russia: Russia’s growth rate is expected to be 2.2%, up from the previous forecast of 1.5%.
• Brazil: The growth rate for Brazil is projected to be 3.1%, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.1%.
• Mexico: Mexico’s growth rate is estimated to be 3.2%, up from the previous forecast of 2.6%.
• Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia’s growth rate is expected to be 0.8%, a decrease from the previous forecast of 1.9%.
• Nigeria: The growth rate for Nigeria is projected to be 2.9%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3.2%.
• South Africa: South Africa’s growth rate is estimated to be 0.9%, up from the previous forecast of 0.3%.

2024 Estimates

• World: The global growth rate for 2024 is projected to be 2.9%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3.0%.
• United States: The U.S. growth rate is expected to be 1.5%, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.0%.
• Euro Area: The growth rate for the Euro Area is estimated to be 1.2%, a decrease from the previous forecast of 1.5%.
• Germany: Germany’s growth rate is projected to be 0.9%, down from the previous forecast of 1.3%.
• France: The growth rate for France is expected to be 1.3%, unchanged from the previous forecast.
• Italy: Italy’s growth rate is estimated to be 0.7%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 0.9%.
• Spain: Spain’s growth rate is projected to be 1.7%, a decrease from the previous forecast of 2.0%.
• Japan: The growth rate for Japan is expected to be 1.0%, unchanged from the previous forecast.
• United Kingdom: The UK’s growth rate is estimated to be 0.6%, down from the previous forecast of 1.0%.
• Canada: Canada’s growth rate is projected to be 1.6%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 1.4%.
• Emerging Markets: The growth rate for emerging markets is expected to be 4.0%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.1%.
• China: China’s growth rate is estimated to be 4.2%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.5%.
• India: The growth rate for India is projected to be 6.3%, unchanged from the previous forecast.
• Russia: Russia’s growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, down from the previous forecast of 1.3%.
• Brazil: The growth rate for Brazil is estimated to be 1.5%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 1.2%.
• Mexico: Mexico’s growth rate is projected to be 2.1%, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.5%.
• Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia’s growth rate is expected to be 4.0%, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%.
• Nigeria: The growth rate for Nigeria is projected to be 3.1%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 3.0%.
• South Africa: South Africa’s growth rate is estimated to be 1.8%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 1.7%.

Key Notes

• The figures in the annual estimates represent the annual percentage change in GDP.
• The figures in the change columns indicate the net difference in percentage points between October’s forecast and prior forecasts.

With these latest estimates, the IMF provides valuable insights into the global economic outlook, allowing policymakers and businesses to make informed decisions. It is crucial to monitor these projections as they shape the trajectory of the world’s economies.