Solar Eclipse Impact on U.S. Electric Grids
Rapid Decline in Solar Generation Expected
As the total solar eclipse approaches, electric grids across the U.S. are gearing up for a significant drop in solar generation. NASA predicts the path of totality to last from 1:30 pm CDT to 2:35 pm CDT, affecting multiple states.
ERCOT (TEXAS)
In Texas, the eclipse is forecasted to pass from 12:10 p.m. to 3:10 p.m. CDT, leading to a dip in solar power generation to around 8% of its maximum output. ERCOT anticipates a decrease from over 10,000 MW to approximately 1300 MW over two hours, with solar typically contributing 15% to over 20% of total electricity.
– Solar generation will rapidly decrease then increase, resulting in a need for ramp and may cause congestion management challenges.
– ERCOT does not expect grid reliability issues and is prepared to deploy additional resources if needed.
MISO (PARTS OF MIDWEST, SOUTH AND WEST)
MISO operates in 15 states and expects a 4,000 MW drop in solar capacity during the eclipse, followed by a 3,000 MW rebound. The grid operator plans to increase reserve requirements and line up extra generation for quick deployment to manage the fluctuations.
ISO NEW ENGLAND
ISO New England estimates a potential 92% loss of overall solar generation during the eclipse, with around 6,000 MW of solar power going offline. The grid operator will rely on alternative power resources like batteries and pumped storage to meet demand.
NYISO (NEW YORK)
New York is projected to face a significant loss of nearly 3,000 MW of solar generation during the eclipse. The NYISO plans to ensure additional resources are available to compensate for the drop in solar power.
PJM (PARTS OF NORTHEAST, MIDWEST AND SOUTH)
PJM expects an 85% to 100% reduction in solar production from its fleet, preparing for a 4,800 MW decrease in grid-connected solar availability. The grid operator is deferring maintenance and keeping hydropower resources on standby.
CAISO (CALIFORNIA)
California anticipates a drop of 6,349 MW to 7,123 MW in grid-scale solar generation during the eclipse. CAISO plans to maintain grid stability by ensuring sufficient natural gas and hydropower resources are available.
